The indicator primarily responsible for this decline is Industrial Production.Incidentally, the last time the average of the four set an all-time high was in January 2006.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
They are: Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in September rose 0.34% and is up 3.2% year-over-year.
The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.
The US economy has been slow in recovering from the Great Recession, and the overall picture has been a mixed bag for well over a year and counting. Real Retail Sales have been weak at best over the past twelve months, and Industrial Production has essentially been in a recession, although optimists are hoping that the March low was a trough and IP may now be in recovery mode.
Here is a percent-off-high chart based on an average of the Big Four.
The interim high was in November 2014 (fractionally below zero at three decimal places).